Updated at 2026-09-08 13:42:46 UTC · 06:42 AM PT
Sources: AviationWeather.gov METAR JSON, NOAA HRRR AWS Open Data
Observed 2026-09-08 13:35 UTC · 06:35 AM PT
75.2°F
Heat index: —1.9 mph (1.6 kt)
Dir: 10° (N)FEW
1200 ft64.4°F
Humidity: 69%1011.9 hPa
Altimeter—
Statute miles—
1-hour— / —
24h: — / —Probability of the daily high falling in each 2°F bucket. The daily high is the maximum temperature across all forecast hours within the NWS climate day (midnight-to-midnight Pacific Time). It uses the near-resolution-adjusted blended forecast (HRRR, bias-corrected) when live METAR obs are available, falling back to the blended forecast otherwise. The high can occur at any hour — including early morning before a cold front. Sigma grows with the forecast hour of the high. Use the date selector to switch between today and tomorrow, and the cycle dropdown within each to look back at what each forecast cycle predicted. Bucket boundaries, alignment, and range are fetched live from the Polymarket US API — they shift day to day (even-aligned on some days, odd-aligned on others) to match the actual market structure.
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Latest forecast hour · 09/08 11:00Z96.9°F
Latest forecast hour · 09/08 11:00Z0.0°F
Max-min across HRRR/NBM/ECMWF/NAM4KM/RAP71%
At latest obs hour±2.2°F
Horizon-dependent85.4°F
near-resolution · climate day max02:00 PM PT
When the max occurs (PT)±4.7°F
Horizon-dep. spread90°F or above
Highest probability18.5%
Probability of peak bucketFull
24/24h in climate day+0.0°F
+0.1°F/hr · 3h OLS78.8°F
Observed daily high81°F or below
Bucket containing actual highTemperature ladder strategy (@AlterEgo_eth): spread $1 across adjacent buckets buying YES shares at equal share-counts. If the temp lands in ANY bucket, one pays out while the others expire worthless. Ladders with positive expected value (model P > market cost) are shown, sorted by Kelly% — the Kelly Criterion combines P(win) with payoff ratio to rank risk-adjusted opportunity. Guaranteed ladders (cost < $1) profit no matter which bucket wins. EV+ ladders profit in expectation based on the model. Not trade execution — informational only. Scale by multiplying the dollar amount. How it works →
| Type | Kelly% | Size | Ladder (adjacent buckets) | Cost | Model P | Payout | E[Profit] | ROI | P(Profit) | If Win | If Lose | Per-bucket allocation ($1 budget) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GUARANTEED | 60.4% | 4 | 81°F or below + 82-83°F + 84-85°F + 86-87°F | $0.18 | 67.6% | $5.56 | $+2.75 | +275% | 67.6% | +$4.56 | 32% × $-1.00 | 81°F or below: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.06 (5.6 shr) · 82-83°F: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.06 (5.6 shr) · 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.11 (5.6 shr) · 86-87°F: 17.3%@14¢ → $0.78 (5.6 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 48.1% | 3 | 81°F or below + 82-83°F + 84-85°F | $0.04 | 50.2% | $25.00 | $+11.55 | +1155% | 50.2% | +$24.00 | 50% × $-1.00 | 81°F or below: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.25 (25.0 shr) · 82-83°F: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.25 (25.0 shr) · 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.50 (25.0 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 41.6% | 3 | 82-83°F + 84-85°F + 86-87°F | $0.17 | 51.5% | $5.88 | $+2.03 | +203% | 51.5% | +$4.88 | 48% × $-1.00 | 82-83°F: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.06 (5.9 shr) · 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.12 (5.9 shr) · 86-87°F: 17.3%@14¢ → $0.82 (5.9 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 32.2% | 4 | 82-83°F + 84-85°F + 86-87°F + 88-89°F | $0.49 | 65.4% | $2.04 | $+0.34 | +34% | 65.4% | +$1.04 | 35% × $-1.00 | 82-83°F: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.02 (2.0 shr) · 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.04 (2.0 shr) · 86-87°F: 17.3%@14¢ → $0.29 (2.0 shr) · 88-89°F: 13.9%@32¢ → $0.65 (2.0 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 32.2% | 2 | 82-83°F + 84-85°F | $0.03 | 34.2% | $33.33 | $+10.40 | +1040% | 34.2% | +$32.33 | 66% × $-1.00 | 82-83°F: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.33 (33.3 shr) · 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.67 (33.3 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 30.6% | 2 | 81°F or below + 82-83°F | $0.02 | 32.0% | $50.00 | $+15.01 | +1501% | 32.0% | +$49.00 | 68% × $-1.00 | 81°F or below: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.50 (50.0 shr) · 82-83°F: 16.0%@1¢ → $0.50 (50.0 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 23.3% | 2 | 84-85°F + 86-87°F | $0.16 | 35.5% | $6.25 | $+1.22 | +122% | 35.5% | +$5.25 | 64% × $-1.00 | 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.12 (6.2 shr) · 86-87°F: 17.3%@14¢ → $0.88 (6.2 shr) |
| GUARANTEED | 2.8% | 3 | 84-85°F + 86-87°F + 88-89°F | $0.48 | 49.4% | $2.08 | $+0.03 | +3% | 49.4% | +$1.08 | 51% × $-1.00 | 84-85°F: 18.2%@2¢ → $0.04 (2.1 shr) · 86-87°F: 17.3%@14¢ → $0.29 (2.1 shr) · 88-89°F: 13.9%@32¢ → $0.67 (2.1 shr) |
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2026-06-17 20:52 UTC
06/17 01:52 PM PT2026-09-08 13:35 UTC
09/08 06:35 AM PT