CHI Live Weather Dashboard

Updated at 2026-08-29 14:01:34 UTC · 09:01 AM CT
Sources: AviationWeather.gov METAR JSON, NOAA HRRR AWS Open Data

Current Conditions — KMDW (Wethr.net live obs)

Temperature Bucket Probabilities

Probability of the daily high falling in each 2°F bucket. The daily high is the maximum temperature across all forecast hours within the NWS climate day (midnight-to-midnight Central Time). It uses the near-resolution-adjusted blended forecast (HRRR, bias-corrected) when live METAR obs are available, falling back to the blended forecast otherwise. The high can occur at any hour — including early morning before a cold front. Sigma grows with the forecast hour of the high. Use the date selector to switch between today and tomorrow, and the cycle dropdown within each to look back at what each forecast cycle predicted. Bucket boundaries, alignment, and range are fetched live from the Polymarket US API — they shift day to day (even-aligned on some days, odd-aligned on others) to match the actual market structure.

Multi-Model Forecast (HRRR)

Forecast High

81.6°F

near-resolution · climate day max

High At

03:00 PM CT

When the max occurs (PT)

Sigma

±2.1°F

Horizon-dep. spread

Peak Bucket

82-83°F

Highest probability

Peak P

36.2%

Probability of peak bucket

Coverage

Full

24/24h in climate day

Trend Shift

+1.1°F

+2.5°F/hr · 3h OLS

Actual High

72.0°F

Observed daily high

Landed In

79°F or below

Bucket containing actual high

Forecast High

89.0°F

near-resolution · climate day max

High At

04:00 PM CT

When the max occurs (PT)

Sigma

±2.2°F

Horizon-dep. spread

Peak Bucket

88-89°F

Highest probability

Peak P

34.7%

Probability of peak bucket

Coverage

Full

24/24h in climate day

Trend Shift

+0.0°F

+0.0°F/hr · 3h OLS

Ladder Trade Signals

Temperature ladder strategy (@AlterEgo_eth): spread $1 across adjacent buckets buying YES shares at equal share-counts. If the temp lands in ANY bucket, one pays out while the others expire worthless. Ladders with positive expected value (model P > market cost) are shown, sorted by Kelly% — the Kelly Criterion combines P(win) with payoff ratio to rank risk-adjusted opportunity. Guaranteed ladders (cost < $1) profit no matter which bucket wins. EV+ ladders profit in expectation based on the model. Not trade execution — informational only. Scale by multiplying the dollar amount. How it works →

Model: mu=82.7°F, sigma=±2.1°F · Observed high so far: 72.0°F · Market: KXHIGHCHI-26AUG29

Type	Kelly%	Size	Ladder (adjacent buckets)	Cost	Model P	Payout	E[Profit]	ROI	P(Profit)	If Win	If Lose	Per-bucket allocation ($1 budget)
GUARANTEED	40.8%	4	80-81°F + 82-83°F + 84-85°F + 86-87°F	$0.82	89.3%	$1.22	$+0.09	+9%	89.3%	+$0.22	11% × $-1.00	80-81°F: 27.2%@39¢ → $0.48 (1.2 shr) · 82-83°F: 36.2%@38¢ → $0.46 (1.2 shr) · 84-85°F: 20.8%@4¢ → $0.05 (1.2 shr) · 86-87°F: 5.1%@1¢ → $0.01 (1.2 shr)
GUARANTEED	33.6%	3	82-83°F + 84-85°F + 86-87°F	$0.43	62.2%	$2.33	$+0.45	+45%	62.2%	+$1.33	38% × $-1.00	82-83°F: 36.2%@38¢ → $0.88 (2.3 shr) · 84-85°F: 20.8%@4¢ → $0.09 (2.3 shr) · 86-87°F: 5.1%@1¢ → $0.02 (2.3 shr)
GUARANTEED	25.9%	2	82-83°F + 84-85°F	$0.42	57.0%	$2.38	$+0.36	+36%	57.0%	+$1.38	43% × $-1.00	82-83°F: 36.2%@38¢ → $0.90 (2.4 shr) · 84-85°F: 20.8%@4¢ → $0.10 (2.4 shr)
GUARANTEED	22.1%	2	84-85°F + 86-87°F	$0.05	25.9%	$20.00	$+4.19	+419%	25.9%	+$19.00	74% × $-1.00	84-85°F: 20.8%@4¢ → $0.80 (20.0 shr) · 86-87°F: 5.1%@1¢ → $0.20 (20.0 shr)
GUARANTEED	16.9%	3	80-81°F + 82-83°F + 84-85°F	$0.81	84.2%	$1.23	$+0.04	+4%	84.2%	+$0.23	16% × $-1.00	80-81°F: 27.2%@39¢ → $0.48 (1.2 shr) · 82-83°F: 36.2%@38¢ → $0.47 (1.2 shr) · 84-85°F: 20.8%@4¢ → $0.05 (1.2 shr)

Model: mu=89.0°F, sigma=±2.2°F · Market: KXHIGHCHI-26AUG30

Type	Kelly%	Size	Ladder (adjacent buckets)	Cost	Model P	Payout	E[Profit]	ROI	P(Profit)	If Win	If Lose	Per-bucket allocation ($1 budget)
GUARANTEED	54.2%	4	86-87°F + 88-89°F + 90-91°F + 92-93°F	$0.78	89.9%	$1.28	$+0.15	+15%	89.9%	+$0.28	10% × $-1.00	86-87°F: 23.7%@34¢ → $0.44 (1.3 shr) · 88-89°F: 34.7%@27¢ → $0.35 (1.3 shr) · 90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.14 (1.3 shr) · 92-93°F: 7.7%@6¢ → $0.08 (1.3 shr)
GUARANTEED	39.7%	3	88-89°F + 90-91°F + 92-93°F	$0.44	66.2%	$2.27	$+0.50	+50%	66.2%	+$1.27	34% × $-1.00	88-89°F: 34.7%@27¢ → $0.61 (2.3 shr) · 90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.25 (2.3 shr) · 92-93°F: 7.7%@6¢ → $0.14 (2.3 shr)
GUARANTEED	36.5%	3	86-87°F + 88-89°F + 90-91°F	$0.72	82.2%	$1.39	$+0.14	+14%	82.2%	+$0.39	18% × $-1.00	86-87°F: 23.7%@34¢ → $0.47 (1.4 shr) · 88-89°F: 34.7%@27¢ → $0.38 (1.4 shr) · 90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.15 (1.4 shr)
GUARANTEED	36.2%	4	88-89°F + 90-91°F + 92-93°F + 94°F or above	$0.49	67.5%	$2.04	$+0.38	+38%	67.5%	+$1.04	33% × $-1.00	88-89°F: 34.7%@27¢ → $0.55 (2.0 shr) · 90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.22 (2.0 shr) · 92-93°F: 7.7%@6¢ → $0.12 (2.0 shr) · 94°F or above: 1.2%@5¢ → $0.10 (2.0 shr)
GUARANTEED	33.1%	2	88-89°F + 90-91°F	$0.38	58.5%	$2.63	$+0.54	+54%	58.5%	+$1.63	41% × $-1.00	88-89°F: 34.7%@27¢ → $0.71 (2.6 shr) · 90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.29 (2.6 shr)
GUARANTEED	17.5%	2	90-91°F + 92-93°F	$0.17	31.5%	$5.88	$+0.86	+86%	31.5%	+$4.88	68% × $-1.00	90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.65 (5.9 shr) · 92-93°F: 7.7%@6¢ → $0.35 (5.9 shr)
GUARANTEED	13.8%	3	90-91°F + 92-93°F + 94°F or above	$0.22	32.8%	$4.55	$+0.49	+49%	32.8%	+$3.55	67% × $-1.00	90-91°F: 23.8%@11¢ → $0.50 (4.5 shr) · 92-93°F: 7.7%@6¢ → $0.27 (4.5 shr) · 94°F or above: 1.2%@5¢ → $0.23 (4.5 shr)

CHI Live Weather Dashboard

Current Conditions — KMDW (Wethr.net live obs)

Temperature

Wind

Cloud Cover

Dew Point

Pressure

Visibility

Precipitation

6-hour High/Low

Temperature Bucket Probabilities

Multi-Model Forecast (HRRR)

HRRR (fh69)

Blended (fh69)

Model Spread

Near-Res Weight

Sigma @ fh18

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Actual High

Landed In

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P

Coverage

Trend Shift

Forecast High

High At

Sigma

Peak Bucket

Peak P